Introduction
The Intergovernmental Agency on Development defines the Karamoja Cluster (Fig. 1) as a cross-border region comprising southwest Ethiopia, northwest Kenya, southeast South Sudan and northeast Uganda, occupied by at least 13 pastoralist and agro-pastoralist communities (Intergovernmental Agency on Development 2021) with ethnic, linguistic and cultural similarities. These ethnic groups include the Bokora, Dessenech, Didinga, Dodoth, Jie, Matheniko, Nyangatom, Thur, Pian, Pokot, Tepeth, Topotha and Turkana (Gray et al. 2003), with common borders of about 8,400 km. Although the Karamoja Cluster can also be characterized by its physical isolation, under-development and conflict, different areas of the Cluster have very different political and conflict contexts. These vary from the relative stable and emerging local governance and policy environment in Turkana and Pokot in Kenya, albeit with persistent livestock and localized livestock raiding, to the severe political instability and widespread armed conflict in South Sudan.
The Karamoja region in northeast Uganda has long been characterized as under-developed and insecure, with repeated episodes of violent livestock raiding within Karamoja itself, and affecting neighbouring areas in Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda. Since the late 1970s, ‘modern’ forms of raiding evolved using automatic weapons, causing considerable loss of human life (Gray et al. 2003). The Uganda government’s response to this violence included a series of disarmament campaigns, and between 2006 and 2010, disarmament was led and enforced by the Ugandan army. This was a particularly dark period in Karamoja’s recent history, with armed air and ground attacks on civilians, frequent reports of human rights abuses and the introduction of ‘protected kraals’, controlled by the army. The containment of livestock in these kraals disrupted access to pasture and water and led to atypical outbreaks of diseases; the net outcome was a marked decline in livestock productivity and survival, and corresponding negative impacts on livelihoods and human nutrition. Before this disarmament campaign, Karamoja already had the worse human development indicators in Uganda.
From 2011, it became evident that the disarmament campaign had created a secure environment in Karamoja while also severely undermining livelihoods. The post-disarmament period saw a new influx of international aid organizations and programmes, as well as some improvements to infrastructure and services, and market and business activity. By 2016, the ten main aid donors in Karamoja had committed funding to development programmes valued at US$95.2 million for 2017 (Karamoja Resilience Support Unit 2016a), and 59 non-governmental organizations (NGOs) were operational (Karamoja Resilience Support Unit 2016b). Starting in early 2016, the Karamoja Resilience Support Unit (KRSU) aimed to support evidence-based programming and policies in Karamoja across all sectors and provide coordination support to a multi-donor platform called the Karamoja Development Partners Group. The KRSU conducted technical reviews, studies and analyses, and provided direct technical support to central and local government, aid donors and NGOs, while also tracking research, programmes and policies in neighbouring areas of Kenya and South Sudan.
By mid-2018, the KRSU recognized a familiar set of livelihoods’ challenges and opportunities in Karamoja. For example, in 2017, it was evident that livestock markets were dynamic and performing well, with the region supplying various internal markets in Uganda, as well as cross-border trade into Kenya and South Sudan (Aklilu 2017). Yet despite this buoyant economic activity, bi-annual surveys by the Government of Uganda and UN agencies showed no clear improvement in human food security or nutrition indicators. Other research suggested that an important effect of the disarmament programme was to encourage a concentration of livestock ownership among wealthier owners (e.g., Stites et al. 2016), while more poorer herders were pushed into non-livestock livelihood activities that generated limited income despite considerable effort (Bushby and Stites 2016; Iyer and Mosebo 2017). These trends indicated that a ‘Moving Up-Moving Out’ pattern of livelihoods’ change was occurring in Karamoja and in a comparable way to pastoralist areas in other countries (e.g., Catley and Aklilu 2013). In summary, households with enough animals engage pro-actively in livestock markets while retaining a sufficient herd for milk production, financial capital and growth; households with few animals struggle to acquire the minimum number needed for basic household food security and become caught in a cash and livestock poverty trap.